**Jay Shaffer:** Welcome to Starcast for the week of February 1st, 2026, rabbit, rabbit, rabbit. I'm your host, Jay Shaffer. And with me is my co-host, Mike Lewinski. Howdy, Mike!.

**Mike L.:** Howdy, Jay!.

**Jay Shaffer:** Mike, what's our space weather looking like over the next couple days?.

**Mike L.:** Well, Jay. When I woke up this morning, it looked very boring, and since then, we have had an X1 flare blasting out of Sunspot AR4366. This region has fired off an X1 flare plus 5 more M-class eruptions, including a trio of heavy hitters: an M6.6, 6.7, and 5.8. And this has caused some disruption of the Earth's ionosphere causing radio communication issues. The NOAA forecasts have not yet been updated since this happened. Right now, our chance of an X-class flare is 5% for the next 48 hours, and our chance of an M-class flare is 35%. And the chances of actual geomagnetic storms right now stand only at 10% of an active condition for us here at the mid-latitudes. Roughly 20% chance of active conditions at high latitudes, but I really believe that this simply hasn't been updated. We don't know yet if we're gonna get hit with a CME from these latest eruptions, but we're going to keep an eye on this sunspot and hopefully see what develops. So what's happening in the night sky this week, Jay?.

**Jay Shaffer:** Well, it's all about the moon; the full snow moon will shine brightly tonight. The exact moment or crest of the full moon falls at 2209 UTC on February 1. And coincidentally, that was about 1 minute ago for our podcast, so that's 4:09 PM Central Standard Time, and not far from sunset for those of you in central North America. As the waning gibbous moon rises after sunset tomorrow on February 2nd, it will be quite close to Regulus, the brightest star in Leo the Lion. They'll be visible through dawn the next morning, and a few observers will see the moon occult, or pass in front of, Regulus. So to find out if you're one of them, look outside on the night of February 2nd. And if you don't see Regulus, that might be because it's behind the full moon. So, Mike, what do you have for us in space news tonight?.

**Mike L.:** Yeah, Jay, an international team of researchers has proposed a groundbreaking space mission called the Moon Enabled Sun Occultation Mission, or abbreviated MESOM. That would use the Moon to create artificial solar eclipses, allowing for unprecedented study of the sun's inner atmosphere. Unlike traditional coronagraphs or formation flying satellites like the European Space Agency's Proba-3, MESOM would position a single mini-satellite within the moon's shadow to block the sun's glare for up to 48 minutes at a time. This configuration, proposed for a launch in the 2030s, would enable scientists to observe the solar corona closer to the sun's surface than ever before, providing critical data to improve forecasts of solar storms that can disrupt global power grids and satellite communications. Researchers estimate that the two-year mission could capture the equivalent of 80 Earth-based eclipses, offering a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to solve long-standing mysteries of solar physics without the atmospheric interference that plagues ground-based observations.

In other news, scientists have developed a new method to track space junk as it falls to Earth by repurposing earthquake-detecting seismometers to listen for the sonic booms of re-entering debris. The technique, detailed in a study published January 22nd in the journal *Science*, allows researchers to calculate the trajectory, speed, and altitude of falling objects in near real time. By analyzing vibrations from a 2024 re-entry of a Chinese spacecraft across 127 sensors in California and Nevada, the team found that the debris traveled 25 miles away from the path that was predicted by traditional radar. This demonstrated a significantly higher level of accuracy for locating potential crash sites. As satellite launches accelerate, our ability to pinpoint landing zones has become increasingly critical for public safety and environmental protection. Lead author Benjamin Fernando of Johns Hopkins University noted that while radar can predict atmospheric entry, it often fails to track the chaotic breakup of objects as they plunge towards the surface. The seismic data not only helps authorities recover hazardous materials and toxic fuel more quickly, but also allows them to track the dispersal of atmospheric pollutants that are released during reentry. Researchers hope to expand the system to include acoustic sensors, which could eventually monitor debris falls over the open ocean where radar and seismic coverages are currently limited.

**Jay Shaffer:** Mike, when I realized this, when I read this article, I thought it would be perfect for us to discuss in more depth today. What do you think?.

**Mike L.:** Yeah, let's look at this a little closer. This study by Johns Hopkins University researchers highlights a growing crisis in orbital roulette, as thousands of satellites crowd low Earth orbit. And I'll just aside here, this week, SpaceX applied for, or Starlink applied for, permission to launch a million orbital data centers—satellites that would do processing for AI. They're unlikely to get approval granted for a million, but the problem is only growing. While radar and optical tracking are effective for objects in a stable orbit, they struggle once an object begins its somewhat chaotic descent through the atmosphere. Atmospheric reentry is notoriously difficult to predict because objects tumble, fragment, and are pushed by unpredictable winds, often landing hundreds or even thousands of miles from their projected targets. By repurposing the global seismic network, scientists can now perform rapid reentry forensics, providing a detailed three-dimensional map of an object's final seconds to locate hazardous materials such as toxic fuel or radioactive power sources before they can contaminate local environments.

And Jay, as you know, we both witnessed a significant space junk event. In the early morning of April 27th, 2023, residents across the western United States witnessed a spectacular light show that many initially mistook for a massive meteor shower. At approximately 2:52 AM Mountain Time, a SpaceX Crew Dragon trunk began a fiery, uncontrolled re-entry, streaking across the skies of Arizona and New Mexico before passing directly over Colorado. The event was the final chapter of the unpressurized service module from the Crew-5 mission that returned astronauts to Earth the previous month. While the main capsule *Endurance* splashed down safely in March, the trunk was left in orbit to naturally decay. When it finally hit the atmosphere, it created a brilliant fireball and a series of loud sonic booms that were reported from Phoenix to Colorado Springs. We both got this event on our time-lapse cameras that night; the re-entry itself was quite a spectacle, featuring a 13-foot-wide cylindrical trunk that had spent months in orbit housing solar arrays and cargo. As it hit the atmosphere, it carved a path from Arizona up through the Four Corners, eventually streaking toward Pueblo, Colorado and the Great Sand Dunes, almost directly over my house in Crestone. People on the ground didn't just see a single light, they saw a shimmering train of glowing fragments as the structure disintegrated into dozens of pieces. And the show wasn't just visual, because the debris was still screaming along at supersonic speeds; it produced intense sonic booms that actually shook houses across southern Colorado. It was also pretty cool that the SpaceX engineers became aware of our videos and contacted us to use our footage to further refine the re-entry path. We will put a link to our videos of that event in the show notes.

So, why does this matter for the space junk discussion? This specific event is a perfect example of why the seismic tracking research is so vital. At the time, NASA and SpaceX models predicted the trunk would completely burn up in the atmosphere. However, the sheer brightness and audible boom suggested significant mass survived deep into the flight path. Since this 2023 event, similar SpaceX trunks have dropped large chunks of carbon fiber debris on farms in Australia, Saskatchewan, and North Carolina. These incidents have forced a major shift in space safety. SpaceX recently announced that they will begin performing targeted reentries for future trunks, using a bit of leftover fuel to ensure that they drop into the remote Pacific Ocean at Point Nemo, rather than making an uncontrolled plunge over populated areas like Colorado.

**Jay Shaffer:** Yeah, I find it fascinating that this technology isn't just limited to man-made debris. It is actually heavily rooted in planetary science, used to study natural fireballs and meteors. The lead researcher, Benjamin Fernando, originally developed these techniques while working on NASA's InSight mission to Mars, where seismometers were the primary tool for detecting meteoroid impacts. On Earth, these same sensors can distinguish between the thud of an earthquake and the crack of a meteor or a satellite breaking the sound barrier. Because meteoroids enter the atmosphere at even higher velocities than space junk, often exceeding 45,000 miles per hour, they produce distinct shock waves that allow scientists to calculate their size and energy, helping to determine whether the meteor or fireball left behind any recoverable meteorites on the ground. I'm also excited about this because I'm a member of the Global Meteor Network, where we use a network of specialized cameras to detect and track these meteor falls; the motto of the Global Meteor Network is "no meteor undetected". They're actually having their annual conference next week, and I'll be curious to see if they have a presentation on the seismic technique.

To achieve this precision of locating these things, scientists rely on triangulation—a geometric method used to find the exact location by measuring from different points. When an object creates a sonic boom, the shockwave reaches various ground sensors at slightly different times. By knowing the exact coordinates of each seismometer and the speed of sound, researchers can draw spheres of probability around each sensor. The point where these spheres intersect reveals the object's position in 3D space. Using a network of dozens of sensors, as was done with the 2024 Chinese satellite reentry, allows researchers to connect the dots and reconstruct a highly accurate flight path and altitude profile in near real time. So, triangulation is essentially the art of finding X on a map by seeing where different perspectives overlap. When you have two observers, you can narrow down the location, but you're often left with a shadow of a doubt. Imagine two friends, Mike and Jay, standing 10 meters apart on a flat field. They are trying to locate a hidden radio transmitter—maybe Mike's iPhone. Mike measures his distance to the target and finds it is exactly 8 meters away. Based on his data alone, the target could be anywhere on a giant circle with an 8-meter radius centered on him. When Jay measures his distance and finds the target is 6 meters away from him, the uncertainty begins to shrink. The target must be at a point where Mike's 8-meter circle and Jay's 6-meter circle intersect. On a flat 2D plane, the two circles intersect at two distinct points. This creates what is called binary uncertainty. The target is either at point A or point B, to the left or the right of an imaginary line between Jay and Mike. Without more information, Mike and Jay are essentially guessing between the two mirror image locations. By adding a third observer, a fellow named Gack—whom I'm pretty sure is an extraterrestrial—the uncertainty is almost entirely eliminated. Gack stands at a different vantage point and measures his distance to the target. His 11-meter circle will only pass through one of the two points that Mike and Jay identified. This third measurement provides the cross-check that locks the target into a single precise set of coordinates. In the real world of tracking space junk or meteors, this isn't done with just 3 points but with dozens of seismometers. Because each sensor has a tiny margin of error, using more observers creates a cluster of intersections. The more sensors they have, the smaller the cluster becomes, allowing the scientists to pinpoint the crash site with incredible accuracy. Mike, do you want to wrap this up?.

**Mike L.:** Yeah, Jay, I just want to mention that I play a game with a transmitter and a receiver out in the Utah Canyonlands desert area. We go out camping for a week or so at a time, and a friend of mine who is an atmospheric scientist has a transmitter that is often launched with radiosondes on weather balloons. So, we take that out there, and one of us in the group is tasked with finding a suitable hiding spot some miles away. Then we scout the area and get up on high vantage points and use the receiver to basically do this very process. By doing it from multiple different locations, we eventually narrow it down; it's just an elaborate form of hide-and-seek, really. But I think it is also relevant for us to leave with the lyrics from the Devo song, "Space Junk": "Now I'm mad about space junk. I'm all burned out about space junk. Walk and talk about space junk. It smashed my baby's head, space junk. And now my Sally's dead space junk.".

**Jay Shaffer:** We all want to thank our listeners for checking out this podcast. It is devolved. So, please be sure to comment, like, and subscribe, and let us know what you'd like to hear more about. You could also check out our individual websites, wildernessVagabonds.com and Skylapser.com. See Mike's time lapses on Mike Lewinsky's YouTube channel, and check out my YouTube channel, which is called Skylapser. And the intro music, as always, is "Fanfare for Space" by Kevin McLeod from the YouTube Audio Library. So, from the Deep Sage 9 Observatory, this is Jay Shaffer and Mike Lewinski wishing you all clear skies and no space junk.